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Por +Factos

Impacto negativo dos impostos no crescimento económico

Será que os impostos introduzem um entrave ao crescimento económico?

Apesar de não existir consenso absoluto, a maioria dos estudos demonstra que sim. O equilíbrio entre o peso do Estado Social e a liberdade económica é um desafio das sociedades desenvolvidas.

Foram analisados mais de 100 estudos publicados nas últimas décadas com o mínimo de relevância no estudo do impacto dos impostos no crescimento económico (excluindo meta-análises). Cerca de 80% desses estudos apontam para um impacto negativo dos impostos no crescimento económico. Ou seja, em maior ou menor escala, os impostos acabam por ser um entrave ao crescimento económico.

Apenas 20% dos estudos apontam para um impacto não significativo, nulo ou positivo dos impostos no crescimento económico.

Nota: Os estudos abrangem vários tipos de impostos ou apenas um imposto em específico.

📚 Lista de estudos analisados:

- Acosta-Ormaechea, S., Yoo, J. (2012): Tax composition and growth: a broad cross-country
perspective, IMF Working Paper No. 12/257.
- Agell, J., Ohlsson, H., Skogman Thoursie, P., “Growth effects of government expenditure and
taxation in rich countries: A comment,” European Economic Review, 2003
- Akgun, O., Cournede, B., Fournier, J. (2017): The effects of the tax mix on inequality and
growth, OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 1447.
- Alesina, A., Ardagna, S., 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER
Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68, National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
- Alesina, A. et al. (1999). Fiscal Policy, Profits and Investment. National Bureau of Economic
Research. Working Paper No. 7207.
- Alfò, M., Carbonari, L., Trovato, G., 2022. "On the Effects of Taxation on Growth: an Empirical
Assessment," Working Paper series 22-06, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Alm, J., Rogers, J. (2011): Do state fiscal policies affect state economic growth?, Public
Finance Review, 39(4), 483-526.
- Angelopoulos, K., Economides, G., Kammas, P. (2007): Tax-spending policies and economic
growth: Theoretical predictions and evidence from the OECD, European Journal of Political
Economy, 23(4), 885-902.
- Arnold, J. (2008): Do tax structures affect aggregate economic growth? Empirical evidence
from a panel of OECD countries, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No. 643."
- Arnold, J., Brys, B., Heady, C., Johansson, A., Schwellnus, C., Vartia, L. (2011): Tax policy for
economic recovery and growth, Economic Journal, 121(550), F59-F80.
- Bakija, J., Narasimhan, T. (2015): Effects of the level and structure of taxes on long-run
economic growth: what can we learn from panel time-series techniques?, Proceedings. Annual
Conference on Taxation and Minutes of the Annual Meeting of the National Tax Association,
108, 1-57.
- Balasoiu, N., Chifu, I., Oancea, M., 2023. "Impact of Direct Taxation on Economic Growth:
Empirical Evidence Based on Panel Data Regression Analysis at the Level of Eu Countries,"
Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-32, April.
- Bania, N., Gray, J.A., Stone J.A., Growth, taxes, and government expenditures: growth hills for
U.S. states, 60 National Tax Journal 193-204 (2007).
- Barro, R. (1990) Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth. Journal of
Political Economy, 98, 103-125."
- Barro, R.J., Redlick, C.J., 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and
Taxes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 51-102.
- Becker, J. (2009). Taxation of Foreign Profits with Heterogeneous Multinational Firms. Center
for Economic Studies. Working Paper No. 2889.
- Benos, N. (2009): Fiscal policy and economic growth: empirical evidence from EU countries.

- Blanchard, O., Perotti, R., An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In
Government Spending And Taxes On Output, 107 Quarterly Journal of Economics 1329-1368
- Blanco, F., Delgado, F. (2019): Taxation and economic growth in the European Union: A
quantile approach, Revista de Economia Mundial, 51, 79-100.
- Bleaney, M., Gemmell, N., Kneller, R., Testing the endogenous growth model: public
expenditure, taxation, and growth over the long run, 34 Canadian Journal of Economics 36-57
- Bretschger, L. (2010): Taxes, mobile capital, and economic dynamics in a globalizing world,
Journal of Macroeconomics, 32(2), 594-605.
- Chernick, H., Tax progressivity and state economic performance, 11 Economic Development
Quarterly 249-267 (1997).
- Cloyne et al., 2018, “Taxes and Growth: New Narrative Evidence from Interwar Britain,” NBER
Working Paper 24659.
- Cloyne, J., 2013. "Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence
from the United Kingdom." American Economic Review, 103 (4): 1507-28.
- Cloyne, J., Martinez, J., Mumtaz, H., Surico, P., 2022. "Short-Term Tax Cuts, Long-Term
Stimulus," NBER Working Papers 30246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dackehag, M., Hansson, A. (2012): Taxation of income and economic growth: an empirical
analysis of 25 rich OECD countries, Lund University Department of Economics Working Paper
No. 2012/6.
- Dalgaard, C., Kreiner, C.T., 2003. "Endogenous Growth: A Knife Edge or the Razor's Edge?,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(1), pages 73-86, March.
- Daveri, F., Tabellini, G. (2001). Unemployment, Growth and Taxation in Industrial Countries.
Economic Policy. 30 (4), pp. 47-104.
- Denaux, Z., Walden, M. (2004): Complete State and Local Fiscal Policy: Impacts on Local
Economic Growth, The Southern Business and Economic Journal, 27, 154–71.
- Denaux, Z. (2007): Endogenous growth, taxes and government spending: theory and
evidence, Review of Development Economics, 11(1), 124-138.
- Drucker, L., Krill, Z., Geva, A. (2017): The Impact of Tax Composition on Income Inequality and
Economic Growth, mimeo.
- Durusu-Ciftci, D., Gokmenoglu, K., Yetkiner, H. (2018): The heterogeneous impact of taxation
on economic development: new insights from a panel cointegration approach, Economic
Systems, 42(3), 503-513.
- Easterly, W., Rebelo, S., Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation, 32
Journal of Monetary Economics 417-458 (1993).
- Eneche Onoja, Emmanuel & Stephen, Ibrahim. (2020). Tax Revenue and Nigeria Economic
Growth. European Journal of Social Sciences. 3. 30. 10.26417/ejss.v3i1.p30-44.

- Engen, Eric M., Skinner, Jonathan, 1996. "Taxation and Economic Growth," NBER Working
Papers 5826, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Feldstein, M., Wrobel, M. V., 1998. "Can state taxes redistribute income?," Journal of Public
Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 369-396, June.
- Ferede, E., Dahlby, B. (2012): The impact of tax cuts on economic growth: evidence from the
Canadian provinces, National Tax Journal, 65(3), 563-594.
- Folster, S., Henrekson, M., Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich
countries, 45 European Economic Review 1501-1520 (2001).
- Forbin, E. (2011): Effects of corporate taxes on economic growth: the case of Sweden,
Jönkoping University.
- Furceri, D., Karras, G. Tax changes and economic growth : Empirical evidence for a panel of
OECD countries
- International Monetary Fund, Will it hurt? Macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation, in
World Economic Outlook: Recovery, Risk, and Rebalancing (2010).
- Jaimovich, N., Rebelo, S., 2017. "Nonlinear Effects of Taxation on Growth," Journal of Political
Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(1), pages 265-291
- Jentsch, C., Lunsford, K.G. 2019. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax
Changes in the United States: Comment." American Economic Review, 109 (7): 2655-78.
- Johansson, Åsa & Heady, Christopher & Arnold, Jens & Brys, Bert & Vartia, Laura. (2008).
Taxation and Economic Growth. OECD, Economics Department, OECD Economics Department
Working Papers. 10.1787/241216205486.
- Jungsuk Kim & Mengxi Wang & Donghyun Park & Cynthia Castillejos Petalcorin, 2021. "Fiscal
policy and economic growth: some evidence from China," Review of World Economics
(Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World
Economy), vol. 157(3), pages 555-582, August.
- Gale, W., Krupkin, A., Rueben, K. (2015): The relationship between taxes and growth at the
state level: new evidence, National Tax Journal, 68(4), 919-942.
- Gale, William G. and Samwick, Andrew A., Effects of Income Tax Changes on Economic
Growth (September 9, 2014). Available at SSRN: or
- Gemmell, N., Kneller, R., Sanz, I. (2014): The growth effects of tax rates in the OECD, Canadian
Journal of Economics, 47(4), 1217-1255.
- Gemmell, N., Kneller, R., Sanz, I., The Timing and Persistence of Fiscal Policy Impacts on
Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries, 121 Economic Journal F33-F58 (2011).
- Gentry, W. M., Hubbard, R. G., 2004. "The effects of progressive income taxation on job
turnover," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 2301-2322, September.
- Gil, P., Martí, F., Morris, R. et al. The output effects of tax changes: narrative evidence from
Spain. SERIEs 10, 1–23 (2019).

- Godar, S., Paetz, C., Truger, A., 2015. "The scope for progressive tax reform in the OECD
countries. A macroeconomic perspective with a case study for Germany," Revue de l'OFCE,
Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 79-117.
- Goetz, S., Partridge, M., Rickman, M., Rickman, D., Majumdar, S. (2011): Sharing the gains of
local economic growth: race-to-the-top versus race-to-the-bottom economic development,
Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy, 29, 428-456.
- Goff, B., Lebedinsky, A., Lile, S. (2012): A matched pairs analysis of state growth differences,
Contemporary Economic Policy, 30(2), 293-305.
- Gravelle, J., Marples, D.J.. (2013). Tax rates and economic growth. Tax Rates: Economic
Effects and Implications. 23-36.
- Grdinic, M., Drezgic, S., Blazic, H. (2017): An empirical analysis of the relationship between tax
structures and economic growth in CEE countries, Ekonomicky casopis, 65(5), 426-447.
- Gunter et al., 2019, “Non-linear Effects of Tax Changes on Output: The Role of the Initial Level
of Taxation,” NBER Working Paper 26570.
- Hayo, B. and M. Uhl (2014): “The macroeconomic effects of legislated tax changes in
Germany,” Oxford Economic Papers, 66.
- Helms, J., The effect of state and local taxes on economic growth: a time series-cross section
approach, 67 Review of Economics and Statistics 574-582 (1985).
- Holcombe, R., Lacombe, D., The effect of state income taxation on per capita income growth,
32 Public Finance Review 292-312 (2004).
- Honest, M.M., 2020. "Tax revenue and economic growth in developing country: an
autoregressive distribution lags approach," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol.
7(54), pages 205-217, January.
- Ho, T.T., Tran, X.H., Nguyen, Q.K. (2023) Tax revenue-economic growth relationship and the
role of trade openness in developing countries, Cogent Business & Management, 10:2, DOI:
- Hunady, J., Orviska, M. (2015): The non-linear effect of corporate taxes on economic growth,
Timisoara Journal of Economics and Business, 8(1), 14-31
- Hungerford, T. (2013): Corporate tax rates and economic growth since 1947, Economic Policy
Institute Issue Brief No. 364.
- Hungerford, T. (2018): Latest tax cuts: history belies promise of growth, Challenge, 61(2), 109-
- Hussain, Syed M. & Liu, Lin, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks:
New narrative evidence from Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
- Katz, C.J., Mahler, V.A., Franz, M.G., The impact of taxes on growth and distribution in
developed capitalist countries: a cross-national study, 77 American Political Science Review
871-886 (1983).
- King, R., Rebelo, S. (1990). Public Policy and Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical
Implications. Journal of Political Economy. 98 (5), pp. 126-150."

- Kneller, R., Bleaney, M., Gemmell, N. (1999). Fiscal Policy and Growth: Evidence from OECD
Countries. Journal of Public Economics. 74. 171-190. 10.1016/S0047-2727(99)00022-5.
- Koester, R., Kormendi, R., Taxation, Aggregate Activity and Economic Growth: Cross-Country
Evidence on Some Supply-Side Hypotheses, 27 Economic Inquiry 367-86 (1989).
- Lee, Y., Gordon, R. (2005): Tax structure and economic growth, Journal of Public Economics,
89(5-6), 1027-1043.
- Liu, Y., Martinez-Vazquez, J. (2015): Growth-inequality tradeoff in the design of tax structure:
evidence from a large panel of countries, Pacific Economic Review, 20(2), 323-345.
- Ljungqvist, A., Smolyansky, M., 2018, “To Cut or Not to Cut? On The Impact of Corporate
Taxes on Employment and Income.” NBER Working Paper 20753.
- Macek, R. (2014): The impact of taxation on economic growth: case study of OECD countries,
Review of Economic Perspectives, 14(4), 309-328.
- Macnamara,P., Pidkuyko, M., Rossi, R., 2021. "Marginal Tax Rates and Income in the Long
Run: Evidence from a Structural Estimation," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2105,
Economics, The University of Manchester, revised Jan 2022.
- Mañas-Antón, Luis, Relationship between Income Tax Ratios and Growth Rates in Developing
Countries: A Cross-Country Analysis (October 7, 1986). IMF Working Paper No. 86/7, Available
at SSRN:
- Mak, A., Rudra, P., Mahendhiran, N. (2021). Are there links between institutional quality,
Government expenditure, Tax revenue and economic growth? Evidence from low-income and
lower middle-income countries. Economic Analysis and Policy. 70. 10.1016/j.eap.2021.03.011.
- Marsden, K., Links between taxes and economic growth: some empirical evidence
- Martinez-Vazquez, J., Vulovic, V. (2014): Tax structure in Latin America: its impact on the real
economy, Revista de Economia Mundial, 37, 41-73.
- McNabb, K., LeMay-Boucher, P. (2014): Tax Structures, Economic Growth and Development,
ICTD Working Paper, No. 22.
- McNabb, K. (2018): Tax structures and economic growth: new evidence from the government
revenue dataset, Journal of International Development, 30(2), 173-205.
- McPhail, J., Orazem, P., Singh, R., (2010). The Poverty of States: Do State Tax Policies Affect
State Labor Productivity?.
- Mendoza, E., Milesi-Ferretti, G., Asea, P., On the Effectiveness of Tax Policy in Altering Long-
Run Growth: Harberger’s Superneutrality Conjecture, 66 Journal of Public Economics 99-126
- Mertens, K., Olea, J.L., 2018, “Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence,”
Quarterly Journal of Economics 133(4), 1803-84.
- Mertens, K., Ravn, M.O., 2013. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax
Changes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association,
vol. 103(4), pages 1212-1247, June.

- Mertens, K., Ravn, M.O., 2018. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax
Changes in the United States: Reply to Jentsch and Lunsford," Working Papers 1805, Federal
Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Milasi, S.,Waldmann, R. (2018): Top marginal taxation and economic growth, Applied
Economics, 50(19), 2156-2170.
- Miller, S., Russek, F. (1997): Fiscal structures and economic growth: international evidence,
Economic Inquiry, 35, 603-613.
- Moore, R., Bruce, D. (2014): Corporate income tax systems and state economic activity,
Advances in Taxation, 21, 73-105.
- Mountford, A., Uhlig, H., 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of
Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
- Muinelo-Gallo, L., Roca-Sagalés, O., “Economic Growth and Inequality: The Role of Fiscal
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- Nguyen, A.D.M., Onnis, L., Rossi, R., 2021. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Income and
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Economic Inquiry 44-57 (2001).
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European Union," MPRA Paper 32354, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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